Feb 25, 2019
Hit or Bomb First Annual Roundup: One year of box office predictions
As I mentioned in our box office predictions for October 2017, we here at the Agony Booth have been predicting which films would be HITs and which would BOMB for one year now. Yes, our very first attempt at this was back in October of 2016, so now’s the perfect time to examine our track record over the previous 12 months, and find out how well we did overall, who are the best prognosticators out of the bunch, and if you should waste any time listening to us in the future.
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HITs we were 100% correct about:
We all correctly guessed that The Girl on the Train, Doctor Strange, Sing, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Founder, The LEGO Batman Movie, Logan, The Fate of the Furious, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Wonder Woman, Despicable Me 3, and Spider-Man: Homecoming would be HITs.
BOMBs we were 100% correct about:
We all correctly guessed that Life on the Line, Monster Trucks, Sleepless, The Great Wall, Collide, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, and 9/11 would be BOMBs.
HITs we were completely wrong about:
Unfortunately, not one of us predicted that Power Rangers would be a minor HIT. (However, at the time we ruled it a “HIT”, it was accompanied by a disclaimer that is was a little too early to tell. And with a final tally of $142 million in worldwide grosses against a $100 million budget, this one likely ended up in the red anyway.)
BOMBs we were completely wrong about:
Sadly, not one of us predicted that Alien: Covenant, Baywatch, Detroit, or Kingsman: The Golden Circle would BOMB.
Most accurate predictor (by total number of correct predictions made):
Thomas Ricard, who made 92 predictions and was right on 65 of them.
The rest of the top 5:
#2 – Thomas Stockel made 88 predictions and was right on 54 of them.
#3 – Rick Lewis made 77 predictions and was right on 52 of them.
#4 – Tyler Peterson made 59 predictions and was right on 38 of them.
#5 – Joel Schlosberg made 48 predictions and was right on 34 of them.
Most accurate predictor (by percentage of correct predictions made):
Joel Schlosberg, who made 48 predictions and got it right 70.8% of the time.
The rest of the top 5:
#2 – Thomas Ricard made 92 predictions and got it right 70.6% of the time.
#3 – Rick Lewis made 77 predictions and got it right 67.53% of the time.
#4 – Michael A. “Mendo” Novelli made 40 predictions and got it right 67.5% of the time.
#5 – Dr. Winston O’Boogie made 12 predictions and got it right 66.67% of the time.
Most optimistic predictor:
Thomas Ricard guessed “HIT” 60.9% of the time. He’s followed closely by Jonathan Campbell, who guessed “HIT” 60% of the time. So, judging by the list of most accurate predictors by total number of predictions made, it totally pays to be optimistic!
Most cynical predictor:
Joel Schlosberg guessed “BOMB” 54.2% of the time. He’s followed closely by Rick Lewis, who guessed “BOMB” 53.2% of the time. So, judging by the list of most accurate predictors by percentage of predictions made, it totally pays to be cynical!
The glass half-full/glass half-empty types:
Marion Stein and Dr. Winston O’Boogie both guessed “HIT” exactly 50% of the time.
And finally, our overall score:
Out of 564 total predictions, we were right on 365 of them. That’s roughly 64.7% correct, so at least we’re doing significantly better than flipping a coin. Yay, team!
See you next time for our November 2017 predictions.
How movies are judged:
- The Agony Booth judges a movie to be a HIT if we project that it will significantly exceed its production budget in domestic (U.S and Canada) box office earnings. Our rule of thumb is +20%, but this may slide up or down based on the marketing budget.
- The Agony Booth only considers domestic box office total, because the share of international ticket sales that ends up with the studio varies not just from studio to studio, but often from movie to movie (although this is less true than it used to be).